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Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

The sin of counting and trusting our own material resources

Here's the sermon I shared this morning at St Andrew's Wickford:

Our Old Testament story from 2 Samuel 24: 9-17 seems a rather strange one. David has the number of fighting men is Israel numbered but then realises that he has sinned in doing so and the punishment for this sin is a pestilence that kills 70,000. In our day and time when census’ and statistics are commonplace, we see no sin in counting people and certainly struggle to comprehend why doing so should result in punishment.

The issue would seem to be that becoming aware of the size of one’s army is likely to reduce trust in God and increase trust in one’s own resources. David’s early career was entirely based on trust in God as he went up alone against the most powerful of the Philistine soldiers wearing no armour and carrying only a slingshot yet, through trust in God, triumphed against the odds. Now, though, he feels the need of the reassurance that 800,000 men are available to form his army.

Like David, the Church of England has become obsessed about numbers. In the past, when the Church of England trusted in Parish ministry and Parish priests, there was no need to count the numbers attending church services because Parish ministry meant that everyone in the Parish was a Parishioner regardless of whether they attended Church or not. At that time, the Church of England trusted that God was at work within the lives of Parishioners whether they were to be found in Church of not.

Now, the Church of England has lost that sense of trust in God and in the parish system, becoming instead obsessed with numbers in Church services on a Sunday and pouring vast amounts of money into initiatives that try, generally unsuccessfully, to significantly increase the numbers to be found in churches on a Sunday.

As a result, a Parish like ours which impacts people in the community seven days a week through Schools ministry, Care Home ministry, pastoral visiting, social action, wellbeing and cultural initiatives is overlooked and underfunded by the central Church, while money is instead poured into initiatives that set up new churches in existing Parishes.

One of the key factors in this change of practice and emphasis was the decision, like that made by David, to begin counting our people. Not only did this run the risk, which has now clearly come about, of focusing on our own resources or their perceived lack, rather than focusing on God and his provision, but it also had the effect of undermining our understanding of parishioners as everyone within the Parish by focusing our statistical attention on those in church on a Sunday. The latter is a congregational focus, rather than a Parish focus, and ignores or overlooks or obscures all the ongoing ministry with which a Parish like ours in engaged.

Trust in God is not engendered, as many within the Church of England currently seem to believe, by large numbers of people attending services or supposedly being converted – as is the focus of many mission conferences and agencies. Instead, trust in God is most clearly found in initiatives, where like David facing Goliath, the resources we have seem pitiful and meagre – inadequate to the task – and yet achieve impact because God is with us.

God is not only with us when material resources are poured out in abundance or when large numbers are to be found in services. God is with us in every situation and circumstance within our Parish because God’s Spirit is at work within every part of and person in our Parish. As we engage with our community, we see that truth realised in each place to which we go and each person we meet. That is what true Parish ministry involves and it is undermined when, like David and the Church of England centrally, we begin numbering our resources in order to trust in what we have, rather than trust in God alone.

The challenge of this strange story is to place our trust when it should always be – in God – rather than in the human resources available to us. May it be so for each one of us. Amen.

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MercyMe - Even If.

Monday, 1 September 2014

Perception and reality in press and politics

There is an interesting comparator from Buzzfeed which is currently circulating on social media. In a survey carried out by Ipsos MORI last year, 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 were asked questions about population and social issues in Britain. These perceptions are then compared with national statistics and the results show that everything we think we know is wrong.

Why might that be? Some will argue that national statistics don't reflect reality. There may be an element of this, for example, unreported crime is (understandably) not included in national crime statistics but is nevertheless real for all those affected by it. However, the inadequacies of statistical measurement (of which there are many) are unlikely to explain the fundamental mismatch in perception that a comparator like this indicates.

For me, media and political debate in the UK plays to our perceptions (and, therefore, prejudices) far more than it does to the reality revealed through the statistics we collect locally and nationally. We need to remember that our press is not balanced or neutral but, taken as a whole, predominantly right-wing. All opinion mediated to us by press and politicians is edited opinion reflecting (consciously or not) the editor's perceptions and stances. Where our press is predominantly right-wing, that also means that the majority of mediated news is presented from a right-wing perspective. This is in addition, to the more evident manipulation of statistics for which a politician like Iain Duncan Smith has rightly been criticised.

The result is that political policies are formed, not by the closest thing we have to reality on the ground (which is, for all its inadequacies, the statistical information we possess), but the discussion of this by press and politicians who are coming at this not from a neutral perspective but from a specific party political perspective. This means, ultimately, that many political policies are not evidence-based and address perception rather than reality; this being a primary reason why they don't deliver what the politicians introducing them say they will deliver.

The gap between perception and reality forms a significant part of Owen Jones' Guardian piece at the weekend entitled It's socialism for the rich and capitalism for the rest of us in Britain. This, before you point it out to me, comes from a left-wing perspective - it is, therefore, an important counter-balance to the overall right-wing bias of the press.

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The Jam - News of the World.       

Saturday, 1 June 2013

Measuring National Well-being

The latest review of the domains and measures of national well-being have recently been published and can be found by following the link below:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/wellbeing/measuring-national-well-being/domains-and-measures---may-2013/review-of-domains-and-measures-of-national-well-being.html

This article is the latest in the ongoing refinement of measures from the Measuring National Well-being programme and ONS would like your feedback.

Key changes include:
  • Addition of five new measures reflecting: arts and culture, participation in sport, access to services, satisfaction with accommodation and household recycling.
  • Removal of three measures namely satisfaction with leisure time, trust in parliament and air pollutants PM10.
  • Renaming the 'Individual well-being' as 'Personal well-being’
  • Making the need for measures to be available for the UK ‘aspirational’, to prevent important components of well-being being excluded on the basis of data availability.

Feedback is particularly welcomed on:
  • Changes made to the criteria used to select the measures.
  • The change in domain name from ‘individual well-being’ to ‘personal well-being’.
  • The measures which have been added.
  • The measures which have been removed.
  • Any suggestions for further variants on the measures which could be more appropriate.

The next release of measures is scheduled for Autumn 2013. In order for feedback to be incorporated into this next release, responses are required by Weds 31st July.

Send feedback to the following email or postal address:

Email: nationalwell-being@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Measuring National Well-being, Room 2.164,
Office for National Statistics,
Government Buildings,
Cardiff Road,
Newport,
South Wales, NP10 8XG.

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The Specials - A Message To You Rudy.

Monday, 19 April 2010

New websites: Neighbourhood Love & British Religion in Numbers

Details of two interesting new websites have been released today:

Neighbourhood Love is based on the premise that Christian churches are doing good things that are relevant to where you live. You can share your story, be inspired by others, join in the discussion, submit your photos, download and use their logo and email attachment, lend a hand ….
Neighbourhood Love is promoted by Chelmsford Diocese in the Church of England but it doesn’t champion any particular church community or place. Its role is in caring and helping, not preaching - and it’s definitely not a substitute for conversation!

British Religion in Numbers (BRIN) is an online religious data resource. Numbers aren't just for statisticians. People want to visualise and understand data for work, for study, for general interest, or to settle a debate. Many debates over religion rest on questions of how large? how many? how typical?


Religious data sources tend to be difficult to find, or need a good deal of interpretation. For example, is Britain 72% Christian, as the 2001 Census reported, or 50% Christian, as found by the 2008 British Social Attitudes survey? The site wants to draw religious data sources together, explain how data can be used, and present some examples intuitively to a wide audience. BRIN is based at the University of Manchester and supported by the Religion and Society research programme.
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Mumford & Sons - The Cave.